Crude oil drops over 2%, metals see overseas market outperforms domestic market, LME aluminum rises over 1%, alumina falls over 3% [[Overnight Market Performance]]

SMM April 30 News:

In the metal market:

Overnight, domestic metals showed mixed performance, while overseas metals slightly outperformed domestic metals. SHFE aluminum led the gains with a 0.6% increase, SHFE copper rose 0.19%, and SHFE zinc gained 0.07%. SHFE lead led the losses with a 0.35% decline. Overseas, LME aluminum led the gains with a significant 1.48% increase, LME copper rose 0.73%, and LME zinc gained 0.65%. Other metals experienced minor fluctuations, while alumina main contract fell 3.74%.

In the ferrous metals series, all products declined, with iron ore down 0.28%, rebar and HRC both fell over 0.4%, rebar dropped 0.42%, and HRC decreased 0.44%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 1.71%, and coke dropped 0.68%.

In the precious metals sector, overnight COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver declined 0.32%. Domestically, SHFE gold dropped 0.29%, while SHFE silver rose 0.12%.

As of 6:48 AM on April 30, overnight closing market conditions

》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard

On the macro front:

Domestically:

【NDRC Allocates the Second Batch of 81 Billion Yuan in Ultra-Long-Term Special Treasury Bonds This Year, Continuing Strong Support for Consumer Goods Trade-Ins】 According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the demand for consumer goods trade-ins has been robust nationwide this year, with the first batch of subsidy funds already utilized at a high level in most regions. Recently, the NDRC issued a notice, jointly with the Ministry of Finance, to promptly allocate the second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to local governments, continuing strong support for consumer goods trade-ins. The next step for the NDRC is to fully leverage the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism of the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," strengthen overall promotion and tracking, urge relevant departments to accelerate the review and disbursement of allocated funds, effectively reduce corporate funding pressure, ensure that real benefits reach consumers, and drive greater effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in policy. 》Click for details

【Three Departments: Launch Market Access Barriers Cleanup and Rectification Campaign to Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market】 The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, and State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on launching a market access barriers cleanup and rectification campaign to promote the construction of a unified national market. The focus of this cleanup is on various regulatory documents established and implemented in the form of local regulations, rules, administrative normative documents, and other policy documents that violate market access system requirements, as well as various practices by governments that improperly set market access barriers. For key and difficult issues with complex causes, strong feedback from business entities, high social attention, or long-standing unresolved problems, the NDRC will supervise and handle them jointly with relevant departments. For issues not verified or rectified within the specified time, or for those who refuse to rectify, rectify inadequately, or conceal or falsify reports, notifications and interviews will be conducted, with key supervision. In severe cases, reports will be submitted to the State Council. After reviewing and screening the problem clues and rectification reports submitted by local governments, the NDRC will select typical cases for public notification and include them in the national urban credit monitoring scope.

Central bank data shows that the weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2025 was 3.11%.

On the US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, supported by easing trade concerns. The dollar also benefited from month-end buying, as investors sought to rebalance portfolios after a massive sell-off in US stocks and bonds in April. Beyond trade, investors are also focusing on a large amount of US data this week. The latest US employment report, preliminary Q1 economic growth, and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data will be the main market drivers. PCE is the US Fed's favored inflation indicator.

Tuesday's data highlighted a gradual economic slowdown. US job openings fell sharply in March, but layoffs decreased, suggesting that despite the shadow cast by changing tariff policies, the labor market remains solid. Affected by tariff concerns, the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Other currencies:

In afternoon trading, the US dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 142.22, marking gains in four of the past six trading days. However, the dollar fell more than 5% against the yen this month, on track for its largest monthly decline since July 2024.

The US dollar also rose against the euro. The euro fell to $1.1395 against the dollar, but rose 0.2% in April, up 5.3%, on track for its largest monthly gain since November 2022.

The US dollar rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to 0.8239. However, the dollar fell nearly 7% against the Swiss franc in April, marking its largest monthly decline since January 2015.

On the macro front:

Today, China's April official manufacturing PMI, US April ADP employment change, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 GDP price index quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 consumer spending annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 GDP implicit deflator quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted preliminary, US April Chicago PMI, US March personal spending month-on-month, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March seasonally adjusted pending home sales index month-on-month, Australia Q1 CPI quarter-on-quarter, Australia Q1 CPI year-on-year, France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Germany March actual retail sales month-on-month, Germany March actual retail sales year-on-year, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany Q1 unadjusted quarterly GDP year-on-year preliminary, Germany April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Switzerland April Credit Suisse/CFA economic expectations index, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter preliminary, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, and Canada February seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year will be released.

It should be noted that on April 30, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the Labor Day holiday.

In the crude oil market:

Overnight, both oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 3.08% and Brent crude down 2.75%. Investors are concerned that US tariffs will hit the global economy and slow oil demand.

A survey showed that most economists believe aggressive tariffs on US imports are likely to push the global economy into recession this year. Global trade disputes have prompted analysts to significantly lower their forecasts for oil demand and prices.

Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a report, "Every day we go without reaching some kind of agreement with any major trading partner, we are one day closer to a global demand destruction scenario." The US March goods trade deficit widened to a record level, as companies imported heavily before tariffs took effect, suggesting that trade significantly dragged on Q1 economic growth.

The impact of trade disputes further reverberated in the corporate world on Tuesday, with courier giant UPS announcing it would cut 20,000 jobs to reduce costs, and General Motors withdrawing its outlook and postponing its investor call to Thursday, awaiting possible changes in trade policy.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. For the week ending April 25, US crude inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)